Australian Home Loans Drop Most in Nearly a Decade on Rates, Grants
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Australian Consumer Confidence May Fall on Rate Hikes, Says Westpac
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Dollar Avoids a Trend Once Again after Retracing Risk Aversion Gains
• Dollar Avoids a Trend Once Again after Retracing Risk Aversion Gains
• Euro Stumbles as Policy Officials Voice Their Doubts over Greece and an EMF Solution
• British Pound Hit by Data and Credit Rating Warnings
• Japanese Yen Benefits from Carry Unwinding and Strong Signs of Economic Recovery
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Stop Placement: Negative Risk Reward Ratio
Student's Comments:
20 day crossed the 50 day, 20 day crossed the 200 day ,candlestick patterns showed a bearish engulfing pattern, enter at following candle at 132.54 -set stop at 132.21 - exit at 131.54
Next chart shows 200 day crossing 50 day with a double top. enter at 133.64 - stop at 135.05 - exit at 132.65
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A Quick Recovery Prevents a Decisive Crude Reversal as Investor Fears Starts to Percolate
Just a day after testing an eight-week high, crude suffered a notable setback through the first half of Tuesday’s session. Through the European trading hours, the commodity would plunge as much as 2.1 percent and subsequently disrupt the steady drive bulls have been more or less able to sustain since the dramatic reversal a month ago.
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Pound Directionless As Monetary Policy Remains Uncertain
The GBP/USD appears directionless as its main drivers of price action have continued to lose influence. Risk trends hold the strongest relationship with a 33% correlation, but recent divergence has seen the level of explanation slide from 41% a month ago. The support that risky assets have generated hasn’t translated into sterling gains as the prospect of more quantitative easing from the BoE continues to weigh. U.K. interest rate expectations have seen their correlation fade from 14% to 1% in the past month as the central bank has trailed its counterparts in bringing an end to liquidity providing efforts. Therefore, we could see a continuation of the current trend until the release of the BoE minutes next week which will provide insight into future monetary policy.
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AUD/USD: Trading the Change in Australian Employment
The labor market in Australia is expected to improve for the sixth consecutive month in February, with economists forecasting employment to expand 15.0K in February, and the data could drive the exchange rate higher as market participants speculate the Reserve Bank of Australia to normalize policy further over the coming months.
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NZD/USD Range Contingent On Dovish RBNZ
Today’s bounce from the 200-Day SMA could be a sign that upside potential is increasing, especially considering the level of concern during early trading. Credit rating agency Fitch placed Portugal on a negative watch list which reignited concerns that the credit issues in Greece could develop into a contagion for the region.
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Japanese Yen Benefits From Risk Aversion, British Pound Extends Decline
The Japanese Yen strengthened across the board as investors scaled back their appetite for risk, while the British Pound extended the decline from earlier this week and slipped to a low of 1.4937 as Fitch Ratings held a cautious outlook for the U.K.
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Light Crude 03-09
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The Moving Average Trade
The FX markets have always been known for their long trending moves and experienced traders use this to their advantage.
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Gold 03-09
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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 03-09
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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 03-09
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Dollar / Yen Support Zone is 8900/50
Given the extent and structure of the USDJPY advance from 8813, it is possible that an A-B-C decline is complete from 9380.
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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 03-09
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NZD/USD Channel Presents Scalping Opportunity
The NZD/USD has been trading in a tight 300 pip range since early February as ebb and flowing risk sentiment has left the pair without a clear direction. The improving global economy has been offset by lingering concerns that post credit crisis fallout remains, which has been enhanced by the credit issues in Europe. The lack of job growth and consume spending has markets concerns that dissipating government stimulus will lead to a period of stagnation. Meanwhile, RBNZ interest rate expectations have diminished which has also been a weighing factor and has seen the “kiwi’s” sensitivity to risk trends diminish.
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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 03-09
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British Pound / US Dollar 03-09
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Euro/ US Dollar 03-09
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GBP/AUD
The GBP/AUD continues to make new multi-decade lows with a move down below the 1.6450 level this morning.
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Declining U.K. Exports Threatens Recovery, Keeping BoE on Alert
The U.K. trade deficit unexpectedly widened to £7987M from £7010M as exports slumped. Demand from abroad for chemicals and other commodities led to the increases shortfall. Severe weather contributed slowed ports and could be a source of the weakness.
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Daily Sound Bites 03.09
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Euro, British Pound Slump as Investors Scale Back on Risk Appetite
The British Pound extended the previous day’s decline to reach a fresh weekly low of 1.4938 during the European trade as Fitch Ratings held a cautious outlook for the U.K. economy, and the currency may continue to trend lower going into the U.S. session as investors curb their appetite for risk.
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Rating Agency Casts Dark Cloud Over Risk Sentiment
The broad based consolidation in the major currencies continues with the Euro once again failing to establish any topside momentum and falling back into the middle of a multi-day bearish consolidation against the buck.
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